Fundamental Trading Strategy Based on Interest Rates
As a forex trader, you should be aware of the role played by the interest rate changes in the general economic and investment climate. You should know that interest rates are an essential part of investment decisions and can drive currency markets as well as the stock and commodities markets in either direction. After the unemployment figures, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release.
The impact of the interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term impact on the currency markets. One Central Banks decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.
In forex trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the quoted currency interest rate. In the currency pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quoted or counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the USD interest rate.
Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.
The reason why it is profitable is that international investors like hedge funds, big banks and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.
Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currency prices. London Inter Bank Offer Rate and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency movements.
Lets take an example, suppose the Australian 10-year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10-year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread in this case would be 350 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar.
Suppose the Australian government raises its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points. The Australian 10 year government bond yield would appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread between AUD and USD is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The Australian Dollar will also be expected to appreciate against US Dollar.
The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data. - 23162
The impact of the interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term impact on the currency markets. One Central Banks decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.
In forex trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the quoted currency interest rate. In the currency pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the quoted or counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the USD interest rate.
Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.
The reason why it is profitable is that international investors like hedge funds, big banks and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.
Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currency prices. London Inter Bank Offer Rate and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency movements.
Lets take an example, suppose the Australian 10-year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10-year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread in this case would be 350 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar.
Suppose the Australian government raises its overnight interest rate by 25 basis points. The Australian 10 year government bond yield would appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread between AUD and USD is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The Australian Dollar will also be expected to appreciate against US Dollar.
The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data. - 23162
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Learn Forex Nitty Gritty. Read about Trend Forex System. Try Netpicks Forex Signal Service.
posted by X - Men @ 1:29 AM
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