Why Is Gold So High Right Now?
What are the reasons behind the high gold costs we are witnessing? Why do certain assets rise to astonishing highs when the basics remain low? In the past twelve months gold has risen to $1,007 per ounce, which is its highest point between March, 2008 and now. Gold has seen a 12% increase in the intervening months.
How has this happened? It certainly hasn't been the fundamentals, which is what you would think would cause it. The demand for gold jewelry has dropped 22% since 2008 according to the World Gold Council, and the use of gold has dropped 21% in industrial processes. The only part of the gold market that has flourished was the speculation, which saw an increase of 46% earlier in the year.
Another reason is that gold is often considered to be a good hedge against inflation leading many to be attracted to this precious metal. But according to statistics listed by the Labor Department, the consumer price index for gold fell 2.1% in a single year. That is the opposite of inflation. So what exactly is being hedged against?
This currency is being debased because of the Federal balance sheet is enlarging in size. Gold could go either way, deflation will only further debase our currency, while inflation is never an optimal scenario either, so gold apparently benefits if either situation occurs.
The US interest rates are low which is also a large factor when it comes to supporting gold. Consider the London interbank dollar rate (which is the method used by banks to charge other banks for loans) that has fallen to an unprecedented low of 0.314%, meaning it is down from 4.8% in October of last year. Unlike bonds, gold does not earn interest, which means there is an opportunity cost associated with having gold. But with the dollar worth as little as it is now that opportunity cost is rendered insignificant.
So, it seems pretty apparent that financial theory is the main cause of the increase in gold costs, and the basics really don't have anything to do with it. Gold prices are currently immense, but there's no way to know what's going to occur in the future. - 23162
How has this happened? It certainly hasn't been the fundamentals, which is what you would think would cause it. The demand for gold jewelry has dropped 22% since 2008 according to the World Gold Council, and the use of gold has dropped 21% in industrial processes. The only part of the gold market that has flourished was the speculation, which saw an increase of 46% earlier in the year.
Another reason is that gold is often considered to be a good hedge against inflation leading many to be attracted to this precious metal. But according to statistics listed by the Labor Department, the consumer price index for gold fell 2.1% in a single year. That is the opposite of inflation. So what exactly is being hedged against?
This currency is being debased because of the Federal balance sheet is enlarging in size. Gold could go either way, deflation will only further debase our currency, while inflation is never an optimal scenario either, so gold apparently benefits if either situation occurs.
The US interest rates are low which is also a large factor when it comes to supporting gold. Consider the London interbank dollar rate (which is the method used by banks to charge other banks for loans) that has fallen to an unprecedented low of 0.314%, meaning it is down from 4.8% in October of last year. Unlike bonds, gold does not earn interest, which means there is an opportunity cost associated with having gold. But with the dollar worth as little as it is now that opportunity cost is rendered insignificant.
So, it seems pretty apparent that financial theory is the main cause of the increase in gold costs, and the basics really don't have anything to do with it. Gold prices are currently immense, but there's no way to know what's going to occur in the future. - 23162
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posted by X - Men @ 7:36 AM
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