Wall Street Discerns Goods Redistribution And The White House
There is this story about small town in Honduras nestled on the coast of the Caribbean. With about one visitor a month, the economy wasn't boding well for the town and all its citizens, it seems, were living on credit and in debt.
A well-heeled stranger shows up in town. He proceeds to the town's restaurant hotel and lays a $100 bill on the reception desk and asks to sit down in order to dine and later be shown the rooms. The owner of the establishment takes the $100 bill and runs out to pay his debt to the produce and meat packaging supply house.
The Butcher takes the 100 dollar bill, and runs to pay his debt to the rancher. The rancher takes the hundred dollar bill and runs to pay his debt to the feed supplier. The feed supplier runs off to pay his debt to the gas station for his fuel costs.
The fuel merchant owns a debt to the town prostitute who, because times were hard, offered her services on credit. With the $100 in hand, she runs over to the hotel and give the owner the $100 bill to pay down her bill for rooms she had to rent for past clients.
Now that the $100 has returned to the hotel owner he lays the $100 bill back down on the counter. The stranger now filled with a delicious meal pays for it with pocket change and decides not to rent a room and takes the $100 back and leaves town.
The moral of the story is that everyone in town was in debt, no one earned any money; they merely paid off debt and everyone feels a lighter burden. No wealth was created. This is analogous to the U.S. government shifting liabilities from one balance sheet to another.
Now the story gets more interesting. The stranger tells others about what a great town he discovered and about the tasty dinner he experienced. The local newspaper picked up the story. Later in the month, when 7 new tourists arrive and take rooms, the hotel proprietor senses a change. He begins planning raising his room rates, perhaps even adding some rooms sensing a future upsurge. The rancher wants to raise his cattle prices because of the increased demand. The feed and fuel supplier is thinking along the same lines. And, let's not forget the prostitute who'll have to charge more because room rates increased.
What has happened is that liabilities transferred from one balance sheet to another. As everyone knows, paying debts keeps money in circulation as long as the debts remain in place. Once they are paid off, new borrowers for loans need to be found. But when "green shoot" optimism begins to reign, everyone wants to raise prices. And the race begins unless monetary policy tightens money supply. If you chose to fly ahead of impending news, get your Wall Street Journal subscription today. - 23162
A well-heeled stranger shows up in town. He proceeds to the town's restaurant hotel and lays a $100 bill on the reception desk and asks to sit down in order to dine and later be shown the rooms. The owner of the establishment takes the $100 bill and runs out to pay his debt to the produce and meat packaging supply house.
The Butcher takes the 100 dollar bill, and runs to pay his debt to the rancher. The rancher takes the hundred dollar bill and runs to pay his debt to the feed supplier. The feed supplier runs off to pay his debt to the gas station for his fuel costs.
The fuel merchant owns a debt to the town prostitute who, because times were hard, offered her services on credit. With the $100 in hand, she runs over to the hotel and give the owner the $100 bill to pay down her bill for rooms she had to rent for past clients.
Now that the $100 has returned to the hotel owner he lays the $100 bill back down on the counter. The stranger now filled with a delicious meal pays for it with pocket change and decides not to rent a room and takes the $100 back and leaves town.
The moral of the story is that everyone in town was in debt, no one earned any money; they merely paid off debt and everyone feels a lighter burden. No wealth was created. This is analogous to the U.S. government shifting liabilities from one balance sheet to another.
Now the story gets more interesting. The stranger tells others about what a great town he discovered and about the tasty dinner he experienced. The local newspaper picked up the story. Later in the month, when 7 new tourists arrive and take rooms, the hotel proprietor senses a change. He begins planning raising his room rates, perhaps even adding some rooms sensing a future upsurge. The rancher wants to raise his cattle prices because of the increased demand. The feed and fuel supplier is thinking along the same lines. And, let's not forget the prostitute who'll have to charge more because room rates increased.
What has happened is that liabilities transferred from one balance sheet to another. As everyone knows, paying debts keeps money in circulation as long as the debts remain in place. Once they are paid off, new borrowers for loans need to be found. But when "green shoot" optimism begins to reign, everyone wants to raise prices. And the race begins unless monetary policy tightens money supply. If you chose to fly ahead of impending news, get your Wall Street Journal subscription today. - 23162
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