Following Gold in Currency Trading
Gold has always been considered as the ultimate global currency. Before 1973, US Dollar used to be pegged to gold. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods System that year, US Dollar was unpegged from gold and become a freely floating currency. Free floating means the value of the currency is determined by the economic fundamentals of supply and demand.
Now US Dollar is only backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Like the present financial crisis when the global economy is in recession, many investors are trying to take refuge in gold as the ultimate safe haven of their wealth from financial turmoil. Many countries are also purchasing gold in the open markets.
Among the different currencies, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is known for its strong correlation with gold prices. Most of this correlation is due to amount of gold that Australia produces and exports. On the other hand, US Dollar has an inverse relationship with gold prices. When gold prices rise, US Dollar falls in value. This causes the currency pair AUD/USD to appreciate in value.
The opposite is also true. As the US Dollar gains value, gold usually loses value. So when gold prices are rising, we can execute long trades on AUD/USD. Likewise, when gold falls in value, we can sell short AUD/USD. This relationship provides us with a method to take advantage of the fundamental factors in forex markets. It may be due to the fact that gold is considered to be the ultimate safe haven by investors in times of financial crisis.
Entering a trade to follow gold is a three step process. We will use RSI (Relative Strength Index) as the technical indicator to trigger our trade. If you have read the previous article on following oil, we had used the CCI (Commodity Channel Index).
Why is that we are now using RSI instead of CCI when both gold and oil are commodities. It all comes down to how quickly the two indicators react to volatility. CCI gives a quicker signal which is good for relatively less volatile pairs. On the other hand, RSI gives slower signals. This is ideal for more volatile pairs like AUD/USD.
Using a moving average to determine if gold is in an uptrend or a downtrend. Watch the seven periods RSI on AUD/USD chart to enter one of its reversal zones. Then move back out of the reversal zone in the same direction as the gold is trending.
Enter a long trade on AUD/USD if the gold prices are rising and the RSI is crossing back above the 30 line. On the other hand, enter a short trade on AUD/USD pair if the gold prices are declining and the RSI is crossing below the 70 line.
You should set a limit order of 200 pips. You should also put a stop loss order of 50 pips for the trade. This risk to reward ratio is good and is (=50/200). The chances are you are going to make $2000 profit (200 pips is equal to $2000 on a standard lot) if the trade goes as you had anticipated. And if the trade does not go in your favor you should be prepared for a $500 loss (500 pips equal $500 on a standard lot). It is not uncommon to have a trade go against you. Only to find yourself right back in trade that goes your way after sometime. - 23162
Now US Dollar is only backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Like the present financial crisis when the global economy is in recession, many investors are trying to take refuge in gold as the ultimate safe haven of their wealth from financial turmoil. Many countries are also purchasing gold in the open markets.
Among the different currencies, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is known for its strong correlation with gold prices. Most of this correlation is due to amount of gold that Australia produces and exports. On the other hand, US Dollar has an inverse relationship with gold prices. When gold prices rise, US Dollar falls in value. This causes the currency pair AUD/USD to appreciate in value.
The opposite is also true. As the US Dollar gains value, gold usually loses value. So when gold prices are rising, we can execute long trades on AUD/USD. Likewise, when gold falls in value, we can sell short AUD/USD. This relationship provides us with a method to take advantage of the fundamental factors in forex markets. It may be due to the fact that gold is considered to be the ultimate safe haven by investors in times of financial crisis.
Entering a trade to follow gold is a three step process. We will use RSI (Relative Strength Index) as the technical indicator to trigger our trade. If you have read the previous article on following oil, we had used the CCI (Commodity Channel Index).
Why is that we are now using RSI instead of CCI when both gold and oil are commodities. It all comes down to how quickly the two indicators react to volatility. CCI gives a quicker signal which is good for relatively less volatile pairs. On the other hand, RSI gives slower signals. This is ideal for more volatile pairs like AUD/USD.
Using a moving average to determine if gold is in an uptrend or a downtrend. Watch the seven periods RSI on AUD/USD chart to enter one of its reversal zones. Then move back out of the reversal zone in the same direction as the gold is trending.
Enter a long trade on AUD/USD if the gold prices are rising and the RSI is crossing back above the 30 line. On the other hand, enter a short trade on AUD/USD pair if the gold prices are declining and the RSI is crossing below the 70 line.
You should set a limit order of 200 pips. You should also put a stop loss order of 50 pips for the trade. This risk to reward ratio is good and is (=50/200). The chances are you are going to make $2000 profit (200 pips is equal to $2000 on a standard lot) if the trade goes as you had anticipated. And if the trade does not go in your favor you should be prepared for a $500 loss (500 pips equal $500 on a standard lot). It is not uncommon to have a trade go against you. Only to find yourself right back in trade that goes your way after sometime. - 23162
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Discover A Revolutionary New Forex Robot. Develop your own Forex Trading System.
posted by X - Men @ 2:03 AM
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