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Monday, June 8, 2009

Fibonacci Ratios - The Secret To Forex Trading Success

By Richard U. Olson

The mathematician Fibonacci or Leonardo of Pisa in 1202 first published his Fibonacci sequence. In order to calculate the number of pairs of rabbits he would have at the end of a year based on their behavior of breeding, Fibonacci developed this famous sequence of numbers. Forex traders find this type of no-nonsense approach very profitable.

Mistakenly many individuals consider mathematical abstraction as frivolous; however it is rooted into real world mathematical applications. The Fibonacci sequence is useful for making us aware of and then explaining those hidden patterns around us daily.

How can this be applied to investing? Very astute investors understand that there are hidden patterns in the stock market--based on the mass of investors' behavior. "Buy low and sell high" and "The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" are but two investment aphorisms that not only work, but also come from understanding hidden patterns of the investment markets.

The reason that investment market patterns are so well hidden is because "up close" they cannot be seen. Day to day, hour to hour fluctuations in the investment markets cannot be predicted with any accuracy. But certain overall trends that extend over longer periods of time definitely can be. And savvy investors, including Forex traders, have successfully been using Fibonacci's number sequence to take advantage and make big profits.

The Fibonacci sequence is a string of numbers with each number being the sum of the two numbers which preceded it. For example, one such string would be 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21 and so on. These numbers are related in several ways. Any given number in a Fibonacci sequence is about 1.618 of its predecessor - the "golden ratio" of the Greek mathematicians.

The most common applications of the Fibonacci sequence for investment purposes are retracements and arcs.

Fibonacci charts are created through a technique comprising three curved lines that are drawn for the purpose of anticipating key resistance and support levels as well as areas of ranging. First, an invisible trendline is drawn between two points (typically these are the high and low for a given time period). Then, three curves are drawn so as to intersect this trendline at the key Fibonacci levels of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. Transaction decisions are made at the point where the price of the asset crosses through these key levels.

In the world of investment, retracement relates to the reversal in movements of the price of a stock. An impressive reversal can counter the prevailing trend in the stock. Successful progressive investors focus strongly on the retracement patterns and possibilities. The Fibonacci method of retracement evaluates the prospects of the price of a financial asset being more superior than is average as well as supporting or resisting at key Fibonacci levels before continuing on its original course. Between the two extreme points a trendline is drawn and then its vertical distance by the ratios of 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 100 percent, according to Fibonacci.

Traders use Fibonacci retracements to determine strategic points for placing their transactions, target prices and stop-loss points. There are other tools which use retracement techniques, chief among them Elliott Wave Theory, Gartley patterns and Tirone levels.

The "Fibonacci formula" is used in investing for the simple reason that it works. Forex traders especially seem to find huge success from using it. - 23162

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