Tail Risk, Options, and The Global Macro Trader

By Bruce Soros

During tumultuous markets, the global macro trader often finds himself in lonely company. Instead of losing a lot or even most of his money the macro trader often finds that he has generated strong returns while most other trading styles have failed. Because of the macro traders penchant for risk it is important for them to practice sound risk management principles.

Position sizing is one of the first tools that a global macro trader, or any trader for that matter should be concerned with. Position sizing allows you to know how much you are risking at the position and portfolio level. There is or at least can be a lot that goes into your position sizing algorithm. Some of the important factors are the amount of your portfolio you are willing to risk. The distance from your entry to your stop. And the probability of the trade working out. You can put in hundreds of other factors but these are a good starting point.

Once you have determined the right position size, or amount to risk on a given trade it is now time to look at how you can structure the trade to maximize your risk to reward and to cut off tail risk. What is tail risk? Tail risk is a term used to describe risks that fall outside of a normal distributed curve. Essentially a tail risk is something like a bomb going off in a major city or the CEO of a company getting arrested for fraud. Anything that can absolutely destroy a position is considered a tail risk.

Probably the simplest and most effective ways to cut off tail risk is to use options. If you are long volatility then you can profit from it whether you are using puts or calls. If on the other hand you are net shot of volatility then you are at the mercy of the markets and their wild and crazy fluctuations.

You can use option to cut off your tail risk because options have very symmetrical payoffs. If you are long a call or a put then you can only lose the money that you have put in but your payout can be many multiples of what you put in.

Of course as with anything there is a potential downside to using option to cut off tail risk. The risk is two fold. One is that you may be overpaying for the options. Depending upon the situation that may or may not matter but it is important to be aware of.

The second major risk is that options expire and therefore you need to fully understand your time horizon before getting into a trade. If your plan is to hold the position for years and years then options may not be the best way to go. If on the other hand you are looking at holding the position anywhere from a few days to a year or so then options are definitely worth looking at.

So when trading make sure to evaluate all of your options and you will have much smoother returns with a lot less downside volatility. After all are you trading to have fun or to make money? - 23162

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